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Chineses raw material bullish factor
- Sep 11, 2018 -

Environmental protection will be checked for another 3 years, and cable materials will eventually rise!

Raw material prices are increasing slowly

In 2018, and I have been in the industry counts of various  major industries. I also made a small combing of the market  changes in the copper market in the past six months. I was surprised to  find that despite the Sino-US trade war and the strike of the Chilean  copper mine. The impact of the copper market is not blazing, but the recent market performance is stable, all the way slowly picking up.
 
In the past three quarters, the price of raw materials, copper, has been falling. From  the beginning of the Shanghai period, the copper opened higher and  lower, falling below 55,000 yuan / ton, the price has narrowed sharply;  at the end of the first quarter, the Shanghai copper futures rose by  three consecutive links, the final line averaged 50,000 yuan support;  then, the Shanghai copper futures Living pressure, about 51,000 yuan / ton into July.

Today,  although the price of copper has entered a new low, it has slowly  increased at a low rate, and there has not been a big ups and downs,  which is gradual.

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The other main raw material aluminum market is not as outstanding as the copper.

On  the macro side, US President Trump said he is prepared to impose  tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports as early as the end  of the public consultation period this week. The  market's worries about the escalation of the trade war continued, and  the US dollar index rebounded for four consecutive days, putting  pressure on the metal market.

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Environmental protection or a major pusher

In the face of  the downstream demand is not urgent, the raw material market has  recently stabilized, one of the most important price increases behind  the scenes is-----environmental protection.
 
In  the near stage, domestic environmental inspections were rotated, from  local self-examination to central inspection, and the scope of  governance was from the ground to the high altitude. There was no dead  angle in the gaseous, liquid, and solid state.

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Environmental protection inspection for at least three years

It is required that by  2020, the concentration of cities with fine particulate matter not  exceeding the standard level will be reduced by more than 18% compared  with 2015, and the ratio of air quality at the prefecture level and  above will be over 80%; the proportion of surface water I-III in the  country will reach 70%. More than %, the proportion of inferior V water bodies is controlled within 5%.
 
In  this context, at the end of September, the second batch of central  environmental protection inspectors started to look back. The inspectors  team successively stationed in 10 provinces (regions) including Hebei,  Henan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi,  Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan.

Environmental protection does not stop, price increases will come

Among them,  Hebei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Guangxi and other places  are widely distributed with important raw material production  enterprises. A large part of these enterprises have been closely  monitored by the environmental protection department for nearly two  months. The problem of the decline in production  caused by enterprises' production reduction is very prominent. It is not  surprising that “things are rare”.
 
At the  moment, the environmental protection investigation is still in  progress. In the next few years, the environmental protection efforts  and the long-term continuation of the time have not been questioned. The  copper raw material industry will continue to be closely concerned by  environmental protection, and the environmental protection and illegal  costs of enterprises are becoming more and more high, can the price not rise?


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